College Acceptance Rates: How to Know What to Target and Reach For

College admissions in the United States has always been, to some degree and for some people, about scarcity. You are probably still reeling from the moment you learned that in 2023 schools like Holy Cross (21% acceptance rate), Boston College (15% acceptance rate), and Emory (10% acceptance rate) are far more selective than either UCLA (43% in 1995) or Johns Hopkins (41% in 1996) was a generation ago. And that doesn’t even mention the most rejective schools of all, like MIT, Stanford, and many Ivy League schools, with acceptance rates now landing below 5%. Yes, the safety schools on my own 1995 college list are now schools that accept fewer than 10% of applicants. 

Selectivity is real– access to these schools is scarce. But the idea that attending a highly selective school is needed for a successful path in life is a perception and not a reality. Let’s shake off the illusion. We all could have better outcomes if we stopped thinking that rejection from a school is tantamount to closing a door to future economic opportunity and some elusive happiness quotient.

We didn’t get to this place from nowhere– folks were trying to get their kids into Harvard and Yale eighty years ago too– but now that acceptance rates at those institutions have dropped from 50% to 20% to 10% and now are sub 5%, we find ourselves in a collective mindset of scarcity. Whom does this benefit? Not students, I’ll tell you that. But treating college as a luxury brand is so American (so capitalist), that most of us can’t even see this for what it is: a false perception of scarcity that drives hundreds of thousands of college-going students and their families to unnecessary distraction. 

How Should Acceptance Rates Figure Into Your College List?

There are hundreds of accredited four-year colleges and universities in this country, and the majority of them have acceptance rates above 60%. This national obsession we have with getting our kids into the “perfect” school (I’m a reformed sinner myself) serves no one more than it does the schools, whose reputation is improved by keeping applications high and acceptances as low as possible. In other words, the more students a college rejects, the more exclusive it is perceived to be. 

Case Study #1

GPA: 4.3 SAT: 1270

Let’s adjust our framework. Imagine a student with As and Bs (maybe even a C) for final course grades. She has a 1270 SAT (83rd percentile of SAT takers) and a couple of AP exams under her belt. This is a STRONG student, maybe in the top half or third of her class. She should be targeting schools in the 50-70% acceptance range, perhaps some in the 40th percentile as reaches. She also might consider re-taking the SAT or only submitting the test score to the safer schools on her list at which her score falls at or above the median. Finally, she should demonstrate interest at the safer schools on her list so that they don’t reject her in a bid to protect their yield rate. 

Case Study #2:

GPA: 2.7 / test optional, no scores submitted

What about a different kind of student? He has an array of grades, from As to Ds, especially because he struggled with a tough year of online schooling during the pandemic. He will take advantage of the test optional policies available at the vast majority of schools because he is not a strong test taker. He should target schools in the 70-90% acceptance range, with some reach schools in the 60th percentile. He may find more success at small liberal arts colleges that will appreciate his full story and base admissions on a holistic review of his application. A larger state university may reject him for being below a demarcated threshold on GPA, regardless of what else he has to offer. 

Case Study #3:

GPA: 4.9 / ACT: 35

This student is valedictorian of their class. They have earned As in all or nearly all their classes, and they have a very rigorous course load of 8-10 AP courses by graduation. They also captain a varsity sport, serve as student body president, and have a specific area of academic interest that is well supported by their activities. They have an incredible academic and personal record. They can and should aim at those schools in the 2-10% range of acceptance, but they also need a foundation of schools in the 20-30% and 40-50% range. Again, as with Case #1, they will want to demonstrate interest in the safer schools to avoid rejection out of hand. 

NOTE: Acceptance rates, yield, and average GPA and test scores are all reported in each school’s Common Data Set (CDS), along with other data, like racial and gender demographics. Note that acceptance rates and student stats increase in competitiveness year on year, so be sure to update the most recent CDS numbers (even the most recent are a year behind) against what a school posts on its own admissions site. 

The Bottom Line on List Building for All Students

Is it incredibly difficult to get into schools with acceptance rates below 25%? Yes, for most students. In fact, only 6% of college students across the US attend such schools. Do most students need to attend an institution this “scarce” in order to have a good life? Empirically, no, not for most people. By the way, you might also ask yourself whether that “hot” school that was practically impossible to be rejected from a generation ago and is virtually impossible to get into now is actually any better than it once was or is only perceived to be so. 

How We Build College Lists for our Students

When I work with students to build a college list, my aim is to hear their needs, understand what is best for them, and to give you and them the knowledge to make decisions in their best interests. My hope is that students will decide for themselves what makes sense financially and educationally and stop caring about status. Then their options will open right back up, as they consider schools on their merits and not on other people’s (or US News and World Report’s) perception of what matters. With information on your side, you will find you have scores of colleges from which to choose. 

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